Evaluation of SPC Convective Outlook Accuracy and the Weather Conditions that Produce Difficult Forecasts

Level of Education of Students Involved

Undergraduate

Faculty Sponsor

Christopher Phillips

College

College of Arts & Sciences (CAS)

Discipline(s)

Meteorology

Presentation Type

Poster Presentation

Symposium Date

Spring 4-30-2026

Abstract

The Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 Convective Outlook is an important daily forecast that needs to be reliably accurate. When these forecasts don’t verify as expected, understanding what makes them inaccurate is important to improving future forecasts so that they can be more trusted and reliable. Using past local storm reports (LSRs) available via Iowa State University’s Iowa Environmental Mesonet webpage, we verified nearly every Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1300 UTC from 2016-2024. These verifications were used to identify weather patterns that represented the environments for inaccurate forecasts.  This research could help future forecasting efforts by identifying common patterns that lead to poor forecast verification, which could improve public trust and reliance on weather forecasts.

Biographical Information about Author(s)

I have always taken special interest in understanding what happens when severe weather forecasts don't play out as expected. The public will often remember inaccurate forecasts more than accurate ones, giving this project significance. This project was perfect for continuing this interest. It has helped me learn Python skills and will be a helpful project for my future career. 

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