The procedure used to develop empirical models which estimate potential spruce budworm impact to spruce-fir stands in Michigan's Upper Peninsula is reviewed. Criteria used to select independent variables, to select the best of alternative multiple linear regression models. and to validate final models are discussed. Preliminary, intermediate, and final results demonstrate a cyclic pattern to the development procedure. Validation is emphasized as an important step in the procedure. Implications of using the hazard-rating system as a pest management tool in the stand management process are discussed.
Lynch, Ann M.; Fowler, Gary W.; and Witter, John A.
"Development of Empirical Models to Rate Spruce-Fir Stands in Michigan's Upper Peninsula for Hazard From the Spruce Budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae): A Case History,"
The Great Lakes Entomologist, vol 17
Available at: https://scholar.valpo.edu/tgle/vol17/iss3/9