Responding to questions of what the gypsy moth, Porthetria dispar, would do in Michigan forests, a computer simulation model was constructed. The model consisted of three subunits: a submodel of gypsy moth population dynamics, a submodel of forest growth and a submodel of tree defoliation and mortality. Several different policies were simulated for an 80 year period. The eradication policy now employed in Michigan failed due to survival of small portions of the population. Allowing the gypsy moth to become established in Michigan forests and then responding by spraying when defoliation is visible provided a policy with the least economic and environmental cost.
Morse, Joseph G. and Simmons, Gary A.
"Alternatives to the Gypsy Moth Eradication Program in Michigan,"
The Great Lakes Entomologist, vol 11
Available at: https://scholar.valpo.edu/tgle/vol11/iss4/4