Title

Latino Macropartisanship Over Time: Political Science Data Review

Faculty Sponsor

Gregg "Bagel" Johnson

College

Arts and Sciences

Discipline(s)

Data Science/Statistics and Political Science

Presentation Type

Poster Presentation

Symposium Date

Spring 5-3-2019

Abstract

Macropartisanship, the distribution of political party affiliations in the population, is usually thought to be stable, but groups with higher number of immigrants seem to be prone to more fluctuation than is typical. The increased fluctuation is thought to be caused by factors such as weaker party attachment and differences within populations (median age of Latinos is much lower than some other groups). This project analyzes how aggregate level partisanship has changed over the last three decades across racial and/or ethnic groups. Moreover, we investigate what factors are driving the high volatility in Latino macropartisanship.

Using public opinion survey responses from CBS and the New York Times, we apply Stimson’s Dyad Ratio Algorithm to construct an ideal time series from the scattered survey marginals. Along with changes across the racial/ethnic groups themselves, we examine additional variables that could be affecting macropartisanship volatility, such as presidential approval, consumer confidence, the frequency and tone of immigration press in national news, and the descriptive representation of Latinos in national government.

Biographical Information about Author(s)

Dan Herschel is a senior Data Science major at Valparaiso University. This project resulted from Dan's experience in Professor Gregg Johnson's POLS 210: Research Methods in Political Science class. There, Professor Johnson's focus on data driven research drew Dan to the political science field for his senior capstone project. After graduation, he will be participating in the CAPS Fellowship program through Valpo's Institute for Leadership and Service.

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