The Effectiveness of NSSL's Experimental Warn on Forecast System for Severe Weather and Flash Flooding Events in The Carolinas in 2020-2021
Arts and Sciences
The Warn-on-Forecast system is an experimental system of computer models that is being developed to improve forecasts, warnings, and decision support for high impact thunderstorm events. It is designed to give accurate predictions of thunderstorm hazards, such as hail, wind, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The goal of this project was to look at the effectiveness of the Warn-on-Forecast system in predicting these hazards in the Carolinas, and to identify elements that could improve ease of use for weather forecasters. Storm reports were gathered for the days that the Carolinas were in the forecast area for the system during 2020-2021. These reports were compared to the different parameters in the system to see how well the Warn-on-Forecast system was able to predict identified hazards. Findings reveal the Warn-on-Forecast system did a reasonable job at predicting hail and flash flooding; however, it underestimated the potential for wind.
Vernon, Natalie, "The Effectiveness of NSSL's Experimental Warn on Forecast System for Severe Weather and Flash Flooding Events in The Carolinas in 2020-2021" (2022). Symposium on Undergraduate Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE). 1074.