Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southeast Indian Ocean has been studied far less than other TC basins, such as the North Atlantic and northwest Pacific. The authors examine the interannual TC variability of the northwest Australian (NWAUS) subbasin (0 degrees-35 degrees S, 105 degrees-135 degrees E), using an Australian TC dataset for the 39-yr period of 1970-2008. Thirteen TC metrics are assessed, with emphasis on annual TC frequencies and total TC days.
Major findings are that for the NWAUS subbasin, there are annual means of 5.6 TCs and 42.4 TC days, with corresponding small standard deviations of 2.3 storms and 20.0 days. For intense TCs (WMO category 3 and higher), the annual mean TC frequency is 3.0, with a standard deviation of 1.6, and the annual average intense TC days is 7.6 days, with a standard deviation of 4.5 days. There are no significant linear trends in either mean annual TC frequencies or TC days. Notably, all 13 variability metrics show no trends over the 39-yr period and are less dependent upon standard El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variables than many other TC basins, including the rest of the Australian region basin. The largest correlations with TC frequency were geopotential heights for June-August at 925 hPa over the South Atlantic Ocean (r = -0.65) and for April-June at 700 hPa over North America (-0.64). For TC days the largest correlations are geopotential heights for July-September at 1000 hPa over the South Atlantic Ocean (-0.7) and for April-June at 850 hPa over North America (-0.58). Last, wavelet analyses of annual TC frequencies and TC days reveal periodicities at ENSO and decadal time scales. However, the TC dataset is too short for conclusive evidence of multidecadal periodicities.
Given the large correlations revealed by this study, developing and testing of a multivariate seasonal TC prediction scheme has commenced, with lead times up to 6 months.
Goebbert, Kevin H. and Leslie, Lance M., "Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones" (2010). Geography and Meteorology Faculty Publications. Paper 6.